On Monday, May 14, the Supreme Court announced that they had
ruled PASPA (the federal ban on sports betting) unconstitutional. This means that, effective immediately,
individual states can determine the legal status of sport betting, unless congress
chooses to pass a regulatory framework for it.
Many states are expected to move rapidly to legalize sports betting,
with New Jersey, Delaware, West Virginia, Mississippi, New York and
Pennsylvania expected to be among the early adopters. New Jersey’s Monmouth Racetrack hopes to
offer sports betting as soon as May 28th, although there are some open
questions about whether this will be possible.
On the question of whether there SHOULD be sports betting on
the FCFL, I strongly believe that the answer is ‘not yet’. With player salaries initially quite low,
there’s definitely going to be an incentive (or a perception of incentive) for
unscrupulous gamblers to bribe players or even for players to bet against their
own team and then contribute to their team losing. This will be a particularly big problem for “prop
bets” where gamblers can bet on the outcome of a specific statistical
category. There was a recent case in
England, where a player in the fourth division (possibly low enough that his
soccer income wasn’t enough to live on without supplemental income) tipped off
friends and family that he would get a yellow card for fouling an
opponent. Anything this easy for one
individual to manipulate shouldn’t be subject to wagers, particularly if the
players involved aren’t making many times more in salary than the potential
size of any bets.
That said, it likely won’t be up to the FCFL whether betting
on its games occurs. Given that the
regulators in the U.S. and other countries appear unlikely to treat different
leagues differently based on their size, each sportsbook will make the decision
of whether to offer betting on the FCFL.
The good news is that the market may do a fairly good job here. Initially, while player salaries are very
low, there simply won’t be enough demand for betting on FCFL to entice them to
offer betting. As demand grows,
sportsbooks will begin offering FCFL bets, but will likely start with harder to
manipulate propositions such as betting on which team will win. Salaries will likely begin rising as well,
making small bribes less appealing to players.
By the time crazy prop bets (such as the ‘yellow card’ example mentioned
earlier) become available, FCFL salaries should be high enough that there isn’t
as much incentive to manipulate game outcomes. There may be a somewhat scary
transition period where league popularity outpaces player salaries, but
hopefully it will be brief and the sportsbooks will exercise good judgment in
what bet types to offer. It’s in their
best interest to avoid any scandals too.